Wired
Flying 5G, ushered in bad news.
According to the domestic mobile phone shipment data released by the Academy of Information and Communications Technology in January this year, 5G mobile phone shipments were 26.324 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, which is also a rare year-on-year decline in domestic 5G mobile phone shipments.
More seriously, from the perspective of the proportion of 5G mobile phones in mobile phone shipments in the same period, there has also been a continuous month-on-month decline since November 2021.
This made many netizens exclaim, today with the popularization of 5G networks, 4G mobile phones are popular again?
5G mobile phones are not fragrant?A rare drop in shipments
With the advancement of the 5G commercial process, 2021 will usher in the rapid popularization of 5G mobile phones.
According to data released by the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in November 2021, the domestic market shipped 35.252 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. Among them, 5G mobile phones were 28.967 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%, accounting for 82.2% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.
This is also the first time that the proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments has exceeded the 80% mark.
However, after the peak, there is a recession. In December 2021 and January this year, the proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments began to decline, 81.3% and 79.7% respectively.
What is more noteworthy is that in January this year, the domestic market shipped 33.022 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%. Among them, 5G mobile phone shipments were 26.324 million units, down 3.5% year-on-year. 5G mobile phone shipments also hit their lowest level in nearly four months in January.
This has also caused many netizens to complain about 5G: “5G mobile phones and 5G packages are too expensive to use!”, “I don’t feel the speed of 5G, and it is good to use 4G mobile phones.”
Communication industry observer Xiang Ligang told Sina Technology that in January this year, the year-on-year decline in 5G mobile phone shipments was 3.5%, far lower than the 17.7% decline in the overall mobile phone market. The reason behind it may be the epidemic, which has reduced the consumption power of users.
He believes that with the construction of 5G networks, users will have more and more network demands, and more and more users will use 5G mobile phones. At present, 80% of users will choose 5G mobile phones when buying mobile phones, and only about 20% are willing to choose 4G mobile phones. The share is actually relatively low.
“That is to say, it is not that there is no so-called explosive 5G application, and everyone does not try to use 5G.”
Sina Technology noticed that in January this year, 30 new mobile phone models were launched in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%; of which 15 were 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%, accounting for 50% of the number of new mobile phone models listed in the same period.
Since January is approaching the Spring Festival, mobile phone manufacturers have launched fewer 5G mobile phone models, which is also related to the decline in shipments.
4G mobile phones are selling again?
For the decline in 5G mobile phone shipments, some even believe that this is due to the resale of 4G mobile phones.
Judging from the data of the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the shipment of 4G mobile phones in January this year was 6.42 million, while the shipment in January 2021 was 12.54 million. In contrast, the shipment of 4G mobile phones in the same period did not show a significant year-on-year increase. rebound.
However, in a monthly comparison, the shipments of 4G mobile phones in January this year did hit the second highest point since April 2021.
Fu Liang, an independent telecom analyst, believes that netizens have misunderstood the data, and 4G mobile phone sales have not rebounded sharply.
First of all, “shipments” are not “sales”, “shipments” are not “shipped” to users, but “shipped” by the manufacturer, and the goods will have different “retention” periods in the channel , therefore, “Shipments” do not directly reflect “Sales”.
Secondly, in January this year, the shipments of 5G mobile phones declined slightly compared with the previous three months, and the decline was not large, and these three months significantly exceeded the shipments of each month in the previous six months.
At the same time, from April 2021 to January 2022, 4G mobile phone shipments will reach a maximum of 6.47 million (October 2021), a minimum of 5.54 million (July 2021), and an average of 5.975 million. The upper and lower amplitudes are only (-7.3%, 8.3%), and since the production line is scheduled to be put into batches, this difference can be said to be minimal and does not constitute a trend change.
However, the phenomenon of 4G mobile phone shipments rebounding again is indeed worthy of attention.
In fact, the report for the third quarter of 2021 released by the research institute IDC shows that although 5G mobile phones have become the mainstream of the Chinese smartphone market, the proportion of domestic 4G smartphone shipments in the current quarter is the first in the past two years. rebound.
According to IDC analysis, on the one hand, this is due to Huawei’s forced shift to 4G products under the influence of force majeure. Several new 4G products are launched in the domestic market.
Xiang Ligang believes that 4G mobile phones will not necessarily be completely replaced by 5G mobile phones in the future, because the cost of 5G chips and modules is still higher than that of 4G, which means that the cost of some 4G mobile phones is very low. There is still demand in the market for 100 yuan machines and 1000 yuan machines.
Fu Liang also pointed out that there are still very few 5G mobile phones below 1,000 yuan available, and 5G mobile phones cannot meet the needs of some users. Therefore, 4G still occupies a certain share of entry-level mobile phones.
In the future, the share of 5G mobile phones will expand. The key is not high-end mobile phones above 5,000 yuan, but the replacement of 4G and other low-end mobile phones in the 500-1,000 yuan range.
Sink the market, the next tough battle for 5G
As experts said, due to cost reasons, 4G mobile phones still have a certain living space in low-end markets such as 100-yuan phones and 1,000-yuan phones. To win this bone, 5G networks and 5G mobile phones must be popularized to the sinking market.
Judging from the plans of the three major operators, actions are already underway.
At the main forum of the 2021 China Mobile Global Partner Conference, Yang Jie, chairman of China Mobile, said that China Mobile will make every effort to build a high-quality 5G network covering the whole country, so as to ensure that the continuous coverage of 5G in townships and above will be basically achieved by the end of 2022, as well as important parks, hotspots, Effective coverage of developed rural areas; China Telecom and China Unicom are also covering 5G co-construction and sharing to county towns and developed towns.
But one of the difficulties faced by operators is that there is a mismatch between the user’s mobile phone and the plan.
As of January this year, in terms of the number of 5G package users, the total of the three has reached 750 million; but since 2019, the cumulative domestic 5G mobile phone shipments are only 469 million. This means that there are 280 million users who use 5G plans but use 4G mobile phones.
What is even more embarrassing is that after purchasing 5G mobile phones, some users have always turned off the 5G network function due to power consumption and other issues, and used them directly as 4G mobile phones. This has made operators who have invested large sums of money in building 5G networks even more anxious.
In fact, guiding users to turn on the 5G switch of 5G mobile phones has become one of the important tasks of branches of operators around the world. For example, China Mobile has specially produced tutorials on how to turn on the 5G switch for mainstream mobile phone products such as Huawei and Apple, and some local branches have also launched preferential activities such as turning on the 5G switch to send traffic.
In addition, the important bearers of promoting the popularization of 5G in the sinking market are various mobile phone manufacturers.
However, their motivation to launch 5G mobile phones in the 100-yuan and 1,000-yuan mobile phone markets does not seem to be that great; on the contrary, the popularity of 5G mobile phones is regarded by many mobile phone manufacturers as an opportunity to enter the high-end market. The most obvious example is the folding screen For mobile phones, Android manufacturers have raised their price range to tens of thousands of yuan, directly confronting Apple.
Before the 5G network coverage in the sinking market is ideal, and before mobile phone manufacturers launch 100 yuan 5G mobile phones at a suitable price, 20% of 4G mobile phone nail households may still exist for a certain period of time.