Wired
News on the evening of September 22, Beijing time, according to reports, many people have predicted that electric vehicles will follow the development trajectory of smart phones. But in fact, the lack of diversity and convenience discourages consumers. It is estimated that it may take ten years or more for the sales of electric vehicles to surpass that of gasoline-powered vehicles.
When Apple started developing electric vehicles in 2014, it seemed to confirm the statement that “electric vehicles will replace smartphones as the next world-changing technology”. As Apple executive Jeff Williams said in 2015, “The car is the ultimate mobile device.”
But seven years later, we still haven’t seen Apple cars. According to media reports, Apple cars may not be available until 2024 at the earliest. At the same time, electric vehicles still account for only a small portion of new car sales in the United States.
For many years, many auto industry observers have predicted that the electric vehicle revolution is coming. If Ford and General Motors cannot get rid of the internal combustion engine, they may become the “next Nokia.” In the United States, the penetration rate of smart phones rose from 17% to 75% in only 5 years. Some people predict that electric vehicles may follow a similar development trajectory.
Once the cost of batteries drops and electric cars become cheaper, the advantages are obvious, including more storage space, faster acceleration, and even “refueling” (charging) at home.
In 2017, the authors of a working paper from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) wrote: “The choice between owning an electric car and a traditional car is similar to switching from an ordinary mobile phone (traditional feature phone) to a smart phone. , The latter’s transformation is quite fast. As the price of electric cars is in line with traditional cars, this transformation may happen soon.”
However, by 2020, electric vehicles will only account for 2% of US consumer vehicle sales. And outsiders in the automotive industry, from technology companies to electric vehicle-oriented start-ups, have so far failed to replicate Tesla’s success. Although electric vehicles are almost certainly the future of the auto industry, it doesn’t seem to be ready to be quickly taken over.
Electric vehicles have not become as popular as smartphones for many reasons: electric vehicles are more expensive than gasoline-powered similar products; dealers may not sell electric vehicles as much as they may not bring in so much service revenue; and mobile phones In contrast, consumers use electric vehicles for longer periods of time (longer replacement cycles).
But the biggest problem comes down to two main problems: lack of diversity and lack of convenience. So far, automakers have not provided consumers with many affordable electric options in the two most popular market segments in the industry, SUVs and pickup trucks.
Industry insider Loren McDonald (Loren McDonald) said: “At present, there is no attractive supply of electric vehicles that can meet market demand.”
Although most charging can be done at home, charging an electric car on the road is more troublesome than filling an internal combustion car with gasoline. The charging network in the United States is relatively small (about 32,000 charging stations in total, and more than 150,000 gas stations), and in some areas of the United States, the distance between charging stations is too large. Even if there are charging stations along your route, the most common type of charger takes more than three hours to fully charge a depleted battery.
Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures, said: “Smartphones do not involve mileage issues, and there are no infrastructure issues.”
At present, various companies are working hard to solve the problem of product selection and charging network. But experts predict that even so, at least until the 1930s, or even longer, electric vehicles will account for more than half of new consumer vehicle sales.
By that time, today’s car giants are unlikely to be replaced by Apple and Samsung like Nokia and BlackBerry. At present, it seems that no (American) technology company is about to release an electric car. Tesla is the only American car manufacturer that was established after 1930 and has produced a large number of electric cars.