Wired
Last week, Counterpoint Research released some data based on its estimates for the chip industry in 2021. Last year, the revenue of the chip foundry industry increased by 23%, reaching $82 billion. Counterpoint said it will grow by 12% this year, bringing revenue to $92 billion. TSMC should grow by 13% to 16% this year, which is quite consistent with the overall growth rate of the industry. Samsung’s revenue in 2021 is expected to grow by 20%. What will drive industry growth this year will be the revenue from wafer shipments and the price increase of similar wafers by about 10%.
Both TSMC and Samsung fabs provide cutting-edge chips manufactured using 5nm and 7nm process nodes. The industry has just started shipping 5-nanometer chips this year, and Apple’s A14 Bionic is the first chip with a 5-nanometer process.
Counterpoint Research predicts that due to the A14 and A15 Bionic chips and M1, Apple will become TSMC’s largest 5nm customer this year, accounting for 53% of production. 5nm output this year will account for 5% of 12-inch wafers, which is less than 1% higher than last year. Counterpoint believes that Qualcomm accounts for 24% of TSMC’s 5nm chip production because Apple is expected to use Qualcomm’s 5nm Snapdragon 5G X60 modem in the iPhone 13. It is predicted that both TSMC and Samsung’s 5nm equipment will have 90% bookings in 2021, and the former’s total 5nm business revenue this year will reach 10 billion US dollars.
Unlike 80% of 5nm wafers used in smart phones, 7nm chips are more widely used, with only 35% of production used in smart phones. Counterpoint predicts that 7-nanometer will account for 11% of 12-inch wafer usage this year. Both TSMC and Samsung produce a variety of 7nm chips, including those made using EUV. Extreme ultraviolet lithography uses ultraviolet light beams to etch extremely thin patterns on wafers to help engineers create circuits. The use of EUV helps foundries reduce their process nodes to the current 5nm, and mass production of 3nm will begin next year.
This year, TSMC’s 7nm largest customer will be AMD; according to Counterpoint data, the latter will account for 27% of such output. Next is Nvidia, accounting for 21%, followed by MediaTek, accounting for 10%, and Intel accounting for 7%. Intel has its own fab, but in terms of process nodes, its capabilities lag behind TSMC and Samsung foundry. The research company said that Intel’s decision to outsource is necessary to maintain the long-term survival of chip manufacturers. Apple will win 6% of TSMC’s 7nm production this year, because some of its older mobile phones still require 7nm chipsets.
Counterpoint pointed out that due to issues such as the epidemic and the global trade war, chip inventory is relatively high, which has risen from 70 days since 2016 to 79 days. Therefore, the chip industry will adapt to higher inventory levels within this year. Counterpoint believes that by 2022-2023, the industry’s annual revenue will reach 100 billion US dollars.
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